Biking Life Gain Calculator (WHO HEAT mortality benefit of cycling)

Understanding the biking life gain calculator — concept and principle

This calculator estimates how much regular cycling lowers the risk of dying from any cause, using the method of the World Health Organization's Health Economic Assessment Tool (HEAT). It shows the reduction in risk, the relative risk, deaths prevented per 100,000 cyclists a year at your age group's death rate, and how close you are to the maximum benefit. Transport planners, health promoters and cyclists curious about the benefits use it.

More cycling, lower death risk — with the default inputs: 15% lower risk.

How it is calculated

Risk reduction = 10% × (minutes of cycling per week ÷ 100), capped at 45%
Relative risk of death = 1 − risk reduction
Deaths prevented per 100,000 a year = background death rate × risk reduction
Share of maximum benefit = risk reduction ÷ 45% × 100
The cap is reached at about 447 minutes a week

HEAT applies these cycling figures to adults aged 20–64.

The principle

HEAT summarises large studies that followed cyclists and non-cyclists over time. Its 2017 methods use a relative risk of 0.90 (95% confidence interval 0.87–0.94) for 100 minutes of cycling a week compared with none. It assumes the benefit grows in a straight line with the amount of cycling and caps it at a 45% reduction to avoid extrapolating beyond the data. Multiplying the reduction by a population's background death rate gives the number of deaths prevented.

Worked example

Defaults: 150 minutes a week; age 45; death rate 250 per 100,000 a year.

Risk reduction = 10% × 150 ÷ 100 = 15%; relative risk = 0.85.
Deaths prevented = 250 × 0.15 = 37.5 per 100,000 cyclists a year.
Share of the maximum = 15 ÷ 45 = 33%; maximum reached at 447 minutes a week.

Each point is the calculator re-run with only “Cycling per week (minutes)” changed; the gold point is the default example. Change the inputs above and this chart follows your numbers.

Cycling per week (minutes)	Reduction in risk of death (%)
37.5	3.8%
75	7.5%
112	11.3%
150	15%
188	18.8%
225	22.5%
300	30%

How to read the result

The result applies to groups, not individuals: it says that among many people like you, regular cycling at this level is linked to about 15% fewer deaths a year. It cannot say how long one particular person will live. This simple form does not include road injury risk or air pollution exposure, which the full HEAT tool can add.

Common mistakes

Reading the result as years of life gained for one person.
Entering a death rate for the wrong age group or country.
Counting very slow or occasional rides as regular cycling.
Applying the figures to children or people over 64.

Keep in mind: This is a population estimate, not a health assessment. Talk to a doctor before starting vigorous exercise if you have health conditions.

Frequently asked questions

How much does cycling reduce the risk of death?

HEAT uses about 10% lower risk for 100 minutes a week, up to a maximum of 45%.

Where do I find my age group's death rate?

National statistics offices publish death rates by age.

Does the tool include accident risk?

Not in this simple form; the full WHO HEAT tool can include injuries and air pollution.

Sources: World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe, Health economic assessment tool (HEAT) for walking and for cycling — Methods and user guide, 2017 edition

Checked 9 Nov 2026. World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe, Health economic assessment tool (HEAT) for walking and for cycling — Methods and user guide on physical activity, air pollution, injuries and carbon impact assessments, 2017 edition (cycling relative risk 0.90 for 100 min/week, linear dose–response, 45% cap at 447 min/week, ages 20–64).

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