CVD Risk Calculator (Framingham 10-year cardiovascular risk, 2008)

Understanding the CVD risk calculator — concept and principle

This calculator estimates the 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease with the Framingham general CVD equation (D'Agostino 2008), from sex, age, total and HDL cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, blood-pressure treatment, smoking and diabetes. It shows the risk, the risk group and the same profile without smoking. People reviewing their heart health with a doctor, and students, use it.

Risk factors multiply together — with the default inputs: 12.9% in 10 years.

How it is calculated

Risk = 1 − S₀^exp(Σβx − mean), using natural logs of age, total cholesterol, HDL and systolic pressure (with a separate coefficient if treated), plus smoking and diabetes terms
Men: β 3.06117 ln age, 1.12370 ln TC, −0.93263 ln HDL, 1.93303 ln SBP (1.99881 treated), 0.65451 smoker, 0.57367 diabetes; mean 23.9802; S₀ 0.88936
Women: 2.32888, 1.20904, −0.70833, 2.76157 (2.82263 treated), 0.52873, 0.69154; mean 26.1931; S₀ 0.95012
mmol/L × 38.67 = mg/dL for cholesterol
Groups: under 10% low; 10–19.9% intermediate; 20% or more high

The principle

The Framingham Heart Study followed thousands of people for decades. D'Agostino and colleagues combined the major risk factors into one equation that predicts coronary death, heart attack, angina, stroke, heart failure and peripheral artery disease together. Each factor shifts risk multiplicatively; the baseline survival S₀ anchors the result. The equation was derived in a mostly white US population aged 30–74 without heart disease.

Worked example

Defaults: man, 55, total cholesterol 210 mg/dL, HDL 48, systolic 135 untreated, non-smoker, no diabetes.

Cholesterol used = 210 and 48 mg/dL.
The equation gives a 10-year risk of 12.9%.
Risk group: intermediate (10–19.9%).
Same profile without smoking = 12.9% (already a non-smoker).

Each point is the calculator re-run with only “Systolic blood pressure (mmHg)” changed; the gold point is the default example. Change the inputs above and this chart follows your numbers.

Systolic blood pressure (mmHg)	10-year cardiovascular risk
33.8	0.9%
67.5	3.6%
101	7.6%
135	12.9%
169	19.2%
202	26.2%
270	41.1%

How to read the result

Where does your result fall?

About 13 in 100 men with this profile would be expected to have a cardiovascular event within 10 years. Doctors combine such estimates with family history, other conditions and local guidelines. The equation can over- or underestimate risk in other populations; studies in Korea found it overestimates risk there.

Common mistakes

Using it for people who already have heart disease.
Mixing cholesterol units.
Using a single high blood-pressure reading.
Treating the risk group as a treatment decision.

Keep in mind: Not a diagnosis. Discuss cardiovascular risk and treatment with your doctor.

Frequently asked questions

What is a high 10-year CVD risk?

20% or more is commonly called high.

Does the Framingham score work for Koreans?

Studies found it overestimates risk in Korea; local equations may be more accurate.

How does smoking change the result?

For a smoker, the "without smoking" row shows how much lower the risk would be.

Sources: D'Agostino RB Sr, Vasan RS, Pencina MJ, et al., "General cardiovascular risk profile for use in primary care: the Framingham Heart Study", Circulation 2008;117(6):743–753 · Pearson GJ et al., Canadian Cardiovascular Society dyslipidemia guidelines, Can J Cardiol 2021

Checked 9 Nov 2026. D’Agostino RB Sr, Vasan RS, Pencina MJ, et al. General cardiovascular risk profile for use in primary care: the Framingham Heart Study. Circulation 2008;117(6):743–753 (Table 2 coefficients, 10-year baseline survival); risk groups as in the Canadian Cardiovascular Society dyslipidemia guidelines (Pearson et al., Can J Cardiol 2021).

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