Heart Failure Life Expectancy Calculator (MAGGIC 1- and 3-year survival score)

Understanding the heart failure survival calculator (MAGGIC) — concept and principle

This calculator uses the MAGGIC risk score to estimate the average risk of death within 1 and 3 years for adults with heart failure. It is used by clinicians to discuss prognosis, plan follow-up and decide how urgently to optimise treatment, and by patients and families who want to understand what a score means.

MAGGIC points add up: with the default inputs the result is score 20 (10.2% at 1 year, 24.7% at 3 years).

How it is calculated

MAGGIC score = sum of integer points for 13 factors:

Ejection fraction (under 20% 7 … 40% or more 0).
Age and systolic blood pressure, whose points depend on the EF group (under 30%, 30–39%, 40% or more).
BMI (under 15 6, 15–19 5, 20–24 3, 25–29 2, 30 or more 0).
Creatinine in µmol/L (under 90 0 … 250 or more 8); mg/dL × 88.4.
NYHA class I–IV: 0, 2, 6, 8.
Male 1, current smoker 1, diabetes 3, COPD 2, heart failure diagnosed 18 months or more ago 2, not on a beta-blocker 3, not on an ACE inhibitor or ARB 1.

Each score maps to the predicted 1- and 3-year risk of death in Table 4 of the original paper.

The principle

The score was built from 39,372 patients in 30 studies. A survival model found which factors predicted death independently and how strongly, and the coefficients were rounded into points. Low EF, older age, low blood pressure, low BMI, poor kidney function and severe symptoms all signal a weaker heart or body reserve. The interaction with EF reflects that age and blood pressure carry different weight depending on how well the ventricle pumps.

Worked example

Default inputs: male, 70, EF 30%, systolic 120, BMI 26, creatinine 1.2 mg/dL, NYHA II, no smoking, diabetes or COPD, diagnosed 18+ months ago, on a beta-blocker and an ACE inhibitor/ARB.

EF 30–34 → 3; age 70–74 in the 30–39% EF group → 8; systolic 120–139 in that group → 1. Subtotal 12.
BMI 26 → 2; creatinine 1.2 × 88.4 = 106 µmol/L → 1; NYHA II → 2; male → 1; diagnosed 18+ months → 2.
Total = 12 + 2 + 1 + 2 + 1 + 2 = 20.
Table: death within 1 year 10.2%, within 3 years 24.7%; survival 89.8% and 75.3%.

Each point is the calculator re-run with only “Ejection fraction, LVEF (%)” changed; the gold point is the default example. Change the inputs above and this chart follows your numbers.

Ejection fraction, LVEF (%)	MAGGIC risk score
7.5	24
15	24
22.5	23
30	20
37.5	19
45	18
60	18

How to read the result

The percentages are averages for similar patients in studies collected before current therapies such as ARNI, SGLT2 inhibitors and modern devices, so they may overestimate risk today. Points that can change, such as taking recommended medicines, show where treatment may help.

Common mistakes

Entering creatinine in µmol/L while the unit is set to mg/dL.
Using an old EF from before treatment changed.
Reading the result as how long one person will live.

Keep in mind: This is a group estimate, not a personal forecast or a diagnosis. Discuss prognosis and treatment with your cardiology team.

Frequently asked questions

What is a good MAGGIC score?

Lower is better; scores under about 15 correspond to a 1-year risk below about 6% in the published table.

Does the score apply to heart failure with preserved EF?

Yes. The data included patients with both reduced and preserved ejection fraction.

Can my score improve?

Yes. Starting recommended medicines and improving symptoms (NYHA class) lowers the score.

Sources: Pocock SJ, Ariti CA, McMurray JJV, et al., "Predicting survival in heart failure: a risk score based on 39 372 patients from 30 studies", Eur Heart J 2013;34(19):1404–1413 · MSD Manual Professional calculator, "MAGGIC Score Predicting Heart Failure Survival"

Checked 9 Nov 2026. Pocock SJ, Ariti CA, McMurray JJV, et al., “Predicting survival in heart failure: a risk score based on 39 372 patients from 30 studies”, Eur Heart J 2013;34(19):1404–1413 (Table 4: predicted 1- and 3-year probability of death for each integer score; Table 2 model coefficients); integer point bands as tabulated in the MSD Manual Professional medical calculator “MAGGIC Score Predicting Heart Failure Survival”.

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