Understanding the MELD and MELD-Na calculator — concept and principle
The MELD score (Model for End-Stage Liver Disease) predicts the risk of death within about three months in people with advanced chronic liver disease. It uses only routine laboratory values, which makes it objective and reproducible. MELD and its sodium-adjusted version, MELD-Na, have been used to prioritise patients on liver transplant waiting lists and to assess risk before procedures.
How it is calculated
MELD = 10 × (0.957 × ln creatinine + 0.378 × ln bilirubin + 1.120 × ln INR + 0.643)
- Creatinine and bilirubin in mg/dL; ln is the natural logarithm.
- Any value below 1 is set to 1, so its logarithm is never negative.
- Creatinine is capped at 4 mg/dL, and set to 4 if the patient had dialysis at least twice in the past week.
MELD-Na = MELD + 1.32 × (137 − Na) − 0.033 × MELD × (137 − Na), applied only when MELD is above 11. Sodium is limited to the range 125–137 mmol/L.
The principle
MELD was derived by regression from patients whose survival was followed. Kidney function (creatinine), bile excretion (bilirubin) and clotting-factor synthesis (INR) were the strongest independent predictors. Using logarithms means that each doubling of a lab value adds a fixed number of points. Later work showed that low sodium adds risk, especially when MELD is low or moderate, which is why the sodium term shrinks as MELD rises.
Worked example
- ln 1.2 = 0.1823, × 0.957 = 0.1745.
- ln 2 = 0.6931, × 0.378 = 0.2620.
- ln 1.5 = 0.4055, × 1.12 = 0.4541.
- MELD(i) = 0.1745 + 0.2620 + 0.4541 + 0.643 = 1.5336; as in the OPTN policy it is rounded to the tenth first, 1.5, so MELD = 1.5 × 10 = 15.
- Sodium 134, so 137 − 134 = 3. MELD-Na = 15 + 1.32 × 3 − 0.033 × 15 × 3 = 15 + 3.96 − 1.485 = 17.475, rounded to 17.
| INR | MELD-Na |
|---|---|
| 0.375 | 11 |
| 0.75 | 11 |
| 1.12 | 15 |
| 1.5 | 17 |
| 1.88 | 20 |
| 2.25 | 22 |
| 3 | 25 |
How to read the result
Scores run from 6 upward and are usually reported to a maximum of 40. Short-term mortality rises steeply with the score: values below about 10 indicate low short-term risk, while scores in the 30s carry a very high risk. Transplant evaluation is commonly discussed once MELD reaches about 15. The United States moved to MELD 3.0, which adds sex and albumin, in 2023, so official allocation scores may differ from this result.
Common mistakes
- Entering creatinine or bilirubin in µmol/L; the formula requires mg/dL.
- Using an INR raised by warfarin, which inflates the score.
- Forgetting the dialysis setting, which fixes creatinine at 4.
Frequently asked questions
What MELD score is considered high?
Scores above about 20 indicate substantial short-term risk, and 30 or more is very high.
Why does low sodium raise the score?
Hyponatraemia reflects worsening circulation in cirrhosis and independently predicts death.
What is MELD 3.0?
An updated model adding female sex and albumin, with revised coefficients, used for US allocation since 2023.
Sources: Kamath PS et al. A model to predict survival in patients with end-stage liver disease. Hepatology 2001. · Kim WR et al. Hyponatremia and mortality among patients on the liver-transplant waiting list. N Engl J Med 2008.